Predictions can be a tricky thing, but if we look at the trends in the music business over the last year we can see where things might be going. Here are 10 predictions for how the industry will fare in 2019. 

1. Apple Music Nearly Catches Spotify 

Spotify is still the king of the hill when it comes to streaming with 83 million paid subscribers, but Apple Music is coming on strong at 57 million at years end. Apple Music's growth was significant in 2018, so look for the gap between the two streaming powerhouses to close even more in the coming year. 

2. Tencent Music Makes Its Move 

Now that Tencent Music had its more or less timid yet successful IPO, look for the company to set its eyes on acquiring more if not all of Spotify. Of course, this only happens if the market rebounds and tech stocks (especially music related ones) again become investor favorites. If not, look for an acquisition down the road. After all, the Chinese play a long game.

3. Smart Speaker Growth Is Kind to Amazon Music 

Love them or hate them, smart speakers are here to stay and that market will grow even more in 2019. The biggest beneficiary of that has been Amazon Music, and the trend helps it even more, especially right after a holiday of big Echo sales and a boost in Prime memberships. 

4. The Charts Mean Less And Less 

Billboard has ruled the music world for more than 50 years and its charts have been the bible for artists and labels everywhere. That ceases in 2019, as the charts become more irrelevant and playlists (especially from the major streaming services) gain more influence. 

5. Major Labels Lose Their Mojo 

Once the dream of every artist, today's artist is more likely to shun a major to go it independently, since so many of the benefits of a major can be had without actually signing to one. Indie and boutique labels continue to grow both in numbers and revenue as artists thrive in a more DIY world. 

6. Streaming Services Remain Unprofitable 

Almost all dedicated streaming services are very good at what they do except for one thing - making money. Choked by the weight of label licensing deals, these platforms struggle to find a way to become profitable, leading to a major market consolidation that begins in the new year. 

7. Article 13 Brings YouTube Chaos 

Be careful what you wish for, major labels, as YouTube is plunged into chaos following the passage of EU Article 13, which holds streaming platforms responsible for the files that their users upload. With YouTube (and other streaming platforms) having to purge so many videos, artists and labels take a big hit in revenue, but even worse, in exposure as well. 

8. Artists Use Social Media For Promo Less 

Many artists have relied on social media as a method of both growing and engaging their fan bases, but that changes in 2019 as the only way to large-scale engagement comes from paid promotion on the various social platforms. Many artists drop off because of principle - even more because of the cost. Instagram carries the load, at least for a while until it focuses more on revenue that users. 

9. Live Music Legards Are Replaced By New Faces 

The concert industry has long worried about what would happen after the 60s, 70s and 80s legends stopped touring, but a new crop of superstars prove that there are stadiums that they can fill. The live portion of the industry continues to grow despite higher ticket prices and perceived price gouging. 

10. Streaming Changes Song Structure Even More 

Over the last couple of years, song structure has changed because of streaming, with fades giving way to beginning a song right on the chorus to hard endings. Now song length will be the next to change as artists make songs shorter. After all, it's more profitable to have a fan listen twice instead of to only one longer song. 

Trends don't lie and many of the above will come to pass. It will be fun to look back at these predictions again this time next year.

Written by Bobby Owsinski~Forbes

Every year has its own unique music trends. These are the most prominent of 2018 so far. 

With the year well underway, the most popular music trends have become clear. Here are the different currents that are coming to the fore in 2018. 

1. Live music will be bigger than ever 

Driven in part by the lack of royalties from the streaming market, musicians have doubled down on live performances in recent years, and 2018 has already proven to be no exception. Major artists have lined up sellout tours for the summer. Jay Z and Beyonce are embarking on their second joint stadium tour. Ed Sheeran’s trip down under has already broken records. 

It’s not just mainstream names who are boosting live music, either. Less well-known artists are selling out venues of their own thanks to dedicated audiences around the world. And music fans are choosing to spend more time than they ever have in live music crowds. Last year there was a 12% rise in concert and festival attendance in the UK. ‘Music tourism’ — which sees fans travelling to different countries or areas to see their favourite acts — is also on the rise. 

2. Lesser-known artists will break through 

Every year sees a crop of lesser-known artists rise to mainstream attention. Just look at Cardi B in 2017. This year, however, there is another reason the trend of new artists breaking through will be more noticeable than ever. The costs of big name talent have skyrocketed, in part thanks to increased attendance at their gigs. As you may have noticed already, this has led many festival promoters to book more niche artists to round out their lineups. It’s also led live music fans to spend more time getting to know new — and thus more affordable — performers. 

The likely result of this trend will be lesser-known artists gaining new fans, and of course music fans finding their new favourite artists. Taking a chance on more up-and-coming or niche talent has benefits for everyone—-booking agents, promoters, artists and concert-goers alike. 

3. Artists will continue to drop surprise releases 

Ever since Beyonce sprung her self-titled visual album on fans in 2013, surprise releases have become increasingly commonplace. In years gone by, every new album release would be trailed months in advance with singles, promo tours, advertising campaigns, and much more. Now, thanks in large part to the internet, artists have moved towards releasing new work with little or no prior warning. 

Some have suggested this trend is winding down, but 2018 has already seen a surprise EP release from The Weeknd, preceded by nothing more than a Shoreditch billboard. Fellow R&B singer Frank Ocean has hinted that an album is on the way this year, but he’s been coy about the date. And even Beyonce herself is rumoured to be working on a new record for release this year. As is the nature with surprise albums, we’ll just have to wait and see if this trend follows through. 

4. Smaller promoters and venues are will embrace their independence 

Behind the scenes of the live music business, smaller venues and promoters are doing everything they can to compete in the big leagues. In the current climate, larger national promoters are moving towards buying out smaller ones, which means the only way for a small promoter or venue to survive is to embrace its uniqueness and independence. 

Eventbrite lists five ways they are doing this. For venues, knowledge of the local community is a big advantage. As is teaming up independent venues in other territories to help put together tour schedules. As independent venues and promoters team up together, the result for listeners could be more artists touring small and medium venues, again giving fans of up-and-coming or niche artists more of a chance to see them in concert. 

5. Vinyl will continue to grow 

When vinyl records first made their return, many assumed the comeback was a fad. Years later, the bubble shows no sign of bursting. Vinyl has been outselling CDs for two years now, and as recently as March of this year, it officially outsold digital downloads in the UK. 

With fans more interested in vinyl than they have been in years, there’s no doubt artists and labels will continue to keep the format alive.